Which Canadian Cities Face the Biggest Risk from U.S. Tariffs?

Trade policies aren’t just abstract numbers and charts—they shape our everyday lives. When the U.S. imposes tariffs, the ripple effects can touch everything from local jobs to the price of a new home. A recent analysis by the Canadian Chamber’s Business Data Lab sheds light on which Canadian cities are most vulnerable to these policy shifts.

Understanding the U.S. Tariff Exposure Index

The researchers put together a U.S. Tariff Exposure Index that looks at two main things:

• Export Intensity: How much of a city’s economic activity depends on selling goods to the U.S.
• Market Dependence: How reliant a city is on the U.S. as its main trading partner.

Cities that score high in both areas are considered especially at risk when U.S. tariffs shake up trade.

The Cities on the Front Line

Saint John, New Brunswick
Leading the list, Saint John is hit hard by its reliance on exports like crude oil from the massive Irving Oil Refinery. Any tariff hike affecting oil could deal a serious blow to the local economy.

Calgary, Alberta
Calgary isn’t just known for its stunning landscapes—it’s also a key hub for crude oil, natural gas, and even beef exports. With a large part of its trade directed at the U.S. Midwest, the city faces significant exposure if tariffs push up costs.

Southwestern Ontario: Windsor, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, Brantford, and Guelph
This region’s economy thrives on automotive and parts manufacturing. Windsor, for instance, has deep ties to Michigan’s auto industry. Tariffs could disrupt this delicate balance, affecting production lines and local jobs.

Other cities like Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, Trois-Rivières, Drummondville in Quebec, and Hamilton, Ontario also find themselves at varying levels of risk due to similar dependencies.

Not Everyone’s in the Hot Seat

Some cities have more diversified trade profiles or export more to regions beyond the U.S. For example:

• **British Columbia’s hubs—Victoria, Nanaimo, and Kamloops—**lean more towards Asian markets.
• Halifax, Nova Scotia, on the East Coast, has stronger ties with Europe.
• Sudbury, Ontario, benefits from exporting nickel and copper to multiple markets.

What About Halifax and Its Housing Market?

How Tariffs Could Affect Halifax Homes

• Rising Material Costs:
  Imagine planning a new home build or a renovation project only to see the prices of key building materials—like steel, lumber, or specialized fixtures—increase unexpectedly. If US tariffs drive up the cost of these imported goods, local builders might face higher expenses. These additional costs could then be passed along to homebuyers, potentially pushing up the prices of new homes in Halifax.
• Shifts in Investor Confidence:
  Tariffs often stir uncertainty in the global market. When investors sense that trade policies might be destabilizing costs or supply chains, they may become more cautious. In Halifax, this could mean a slowdown in new housing projects or delays in planned developments, as both developers and buyers wait to see how these economic shifts unfold.
• Indirect Economic Effects:
  Even if you’re not in the construction business, you might notice subtle changes at the local level. Higher construction costs can lead to more expensive rental units or a slowdown in housing supply. In turn, this could influence overall market dynamics, affecting everything from home prices to the rate of new developments across the region.

Why This Matters to You

For many Halifax residents, home isn’t just an investment—it’s where life happens. Rising costs, influenced by factors like US tariffs, can have real consequences on affordability and availability. Whether you’re a first-time buyer or a long-time homeowner, keeping an eye on these global trends can help you better understand the shifts in our local housing market.

The Bigger Picture

These findings serve as a reminder: while some cities are at the frontline of trade exposure, the effects of U.S. tariffs are far-reaching. For policymakers, businesses, and even individual homeowners, understanding these connections is crucial. It calls for proactive strategies—like diversifying export markets and adjusting fiscal policies—to cushion communities from sudden shocks.

Whether you’re in Saint John, Calgary, or even Halifax, staying informed about these global shifts can help you navigate the potential challenges ahead. In our globalized economy, even policies made halfway around the world can end up impacting your neighborhood and, in Halifax’s case, your doorstep.

Nova Scotia’s 2025-26 Budget: What It Means for You

Nova Scotia’s latest budget is packed with big changes aimed at making life easier. With $17.6 billion in spending, the province is tackling key issues like housing, healthcare, and economic stability. So, what does this mean for you? Let’s break it down.

More Housing, Less Stress

If you’ve been struggling with rent or trying to find an affordable place to live, there’s some good news.

• $88 million is going into public housing—building, renovating, and maintaining much-needed units. Over the last year and a half, 515 new units have been announced.
• $73.9 million will be used for rent supplements, with 400 more people getting financial help. That brings the total number of rent supplements in the province to 8,900.
• A $54.1 million HST rebate is coming for developers building new purpose-built rentals. If a project starts between September 14, 2023, and December 31, 2030 (and is completed by the end of 2035), it qualifies for the rebate. This could mean more rental units on the market in the near future.

Better Healthcare, More Support

Healthcare is getting a major boost, with a strong focus on long-term care and disability services.

• $45.8 million is being spent to add new nursing home beds, with five new facilities opening this year.
• $44.8 million is allocated to help people with disabilities move out of large institutions and into community-based settings.

Fighting Homelessness

Housing affordability isn’t just about rent—it’s also about keeping people off the streets.

• The province is adding $10.5 million to its homelessness support programs, bringing the total budget for these initiatives to $130.5 million.

Tax Changes: Some Good, Some Not So Good

The budget also comes with tax changes. Some will ease the financial burden, while others might hit harder.

• HST is dropping by 1% starting April 1, 2025, bringing the tax rate down to 14%. That means you’ll pay a little less on purchases.
• If you’re a non-resident buying property, expect to pay more. The deed transfer tax is doubling from 5% to 10% as of April 1, 2025. This is meant to discourage speculative real estate investments and keep more homes available for locals.

Investing in the Economy and Climate Preparedness

Beyond housing and healthcare, the budget also makes big investments in infrastructure and emergency management.

• $2.3 billion is being poured into capital projects, boosting jobs and economic growth.
• Healthcare spending is jumping by 8%, with nearly $6 billion now allocated to improving services.
• A new Department of Emergency Management is getting $25 million to help the province better handle climate-related disasters.

A Big Deficit, but a Long-Term Plan

All these investments come at a cost. Nova Scotia is looking at a $697.5 million deficit for the year. The government argues that this spending is necessary to fix long-standing problems and set the province up for long-term stability.

What’s Next?

The real test will be how these policies play out in the coming months. Will rent relief help enough people? Can healthcare investments keep up with demand? Will the HST cut make a noticeable difference?

One thing is certain—this budget will have a big impact on Nova Scotians. Now, it’s a matter of seeing if these changes deliver on their promises.

Halifax Real Estate Market Trends: 4 Surprises

Halifax’s Record-Low Delinquency: A Sign of Market Resilience

In a day and age when economic reports frequently trumpet financial struggles, the real estate market for Halifax paints a very different picture. Halifax’s delinquency rate for mortgages dipped all the way down to 0.12% in 2023, far from the 0.47% reported for 2014. This is not only a figure—rather, it is a good reflection of the fiscal health and security of the populace.

What makes this achievement even more impressive is the backdrop. In the midst of rising interest rates and escalating housing costs, Halifax homeowners are showing outstanding fiscal discipline. This is even more impressive when you consider the serious market headwinds under which this is being accomplished.

The impact is not only felt by individual property owners. For potential buyers, it is indicative of a solid market and sound lending habits. For investors, it is the signal for a risk-free environment coupled with good returns. Most significant is the reflection this presents about the general economic health of the area, even during tough times.

This trend also mirrors the effectiveness of local banking culture and knowledge about money. That delinquencies decreased sharply is reflective of responsible lending and borrowing by the lender and the borrower. This is testimony to the effectiveness of good screening processes and the responsible culture for money by the citizens of Halifax.

The Development of Multi-Unit Housing: Changing the Face of Halifax

Halifax’s housing market is being turned upside down by multi-unit projects, and the statistics bear this out: 4,128 multi-unit starts for the year 2023, a whopping 58% increase from the prior year. Single-unit starts, on the other hand, dropped to only 529 units.

This shift is not only about the redevelopment of skylines, but also about lifestyle changes and adapting to market demands. This increased trend for multi-unit projects is the reflection of the popularity for urban living, where proximity and proximity to the city is the prime consideration. This also caters to the need for affordable housing space within the city’s expanding urban boundaries.

For young professionals and recent migrants to Halifax, this is good for access to the housing market. Multi-unit buildings generally have lower entry points and less maintenance responsibilities compared to houses. Most also have features pertinent to contemporary lives, including fitness rooms and workspaces.

The environmental implications of this trend are also significant. Higher-density housing facilitates the use of the land and infrastructure more intensively, resulting in a more sustainable urban environment. It also creates walkable neighbourhoods, reducing the need for cars and the associated consumption patterns, and encouraging the adoption of greener habits.

Commercial Building Boom: Halifax’s Economic Development

The surge in non-residential building investment is one solid story about where Halifax is going. A $128 million (27.2%) increase during the year 2023 is followed by even larger increases by $183 million (63.3%) during the year 2022, suggesting enormous business growth.

This wave is not only about buildings; it is also about business confidence for the future of Halifax. These corporations are heavily committing to the city, constructing space for business, for creativity, for commerce, and for connection. These ripples will seep into industries, from job opportunities through diversification of the overall economy. For real property investors and property owners, this is promising. As business expands and new business opportunities make their entry into the market, the demand for residential housing and business property is likely to expand. This interaction between housing demand and business building is a strong setting for property investment.

The timing is particularly pertinent for this investment surge. While the international market has witnessed uncertainty, Halifax has attracted high levels of business investment, cementing its reputation as a secure and sound business centre.

Understanding the Rental Market Trends of Halifax: A Tale of Two Districts

The stark divergence in rent hikes for Halifax’s districts—21.6% for Bedford/Sackville and only 12.1% for Halifax Mainland—bears witness to the fluid and ever-changing rental market. These differences attest to the changing neighbourhood patterns and shifting demographics.

The sharp increase in rent for the district of Bedford/Sackville suggests high district demand, possibly induced by the presence of new developments, increased infrastructure, or changes in demographics. For property holders and investors alike, knowledge about the local differences is the crux of making sound property purchasing and building investments.

The more conservative rise for Halifax Mainland (12.1%) may be the result of various market forces playing, including historically high levels of rent or balanced levels of supply-demand relationship. These local variations leave space for investors and tenants alike to tailor their strategy towards their individual goals.

For policymakers and planners, the disparities indicate the need for targeted housing policies and affordability initiatives. An examination of the disparities can yield insights for policymaking for zoning, approval for development, and affordable housing policies.

Looking Ahead

These four trends indicate the shifting Halifax housing market. Beginning from delinquencies historically through rent differentials by market, each trend is noteworthy for all concerned parties.

For buyers, investors, and vendors alike, knowledge about these trends is the key to making informed purchasing, investment, and sales decisions. For business professionals, the trends can impact strategy and enable enhanced client servicing. And for the general populace, the trends reflect the ongoing prosperity and advancement of the city of Halifax.

Success in this market will depend upon being informed about the trends and being flexible when adapting. As Halifax grows and evolves, the opportunities and pitfalls for its real estate market will grow and evolve also.

Data sources: Halifax Partnership (2023-2024 reports)