Which Canadian Cities Face the Biggest Risk from U.S. Tariffs?

Which Canadian Cities Face the Biggest Risk from U.S. Tariffs?

Trade policies aren’t just abstract numbers and charts—they shape our everyday lives. When the U.S. imposes tariffs, the ripple effects can touch everything from local jobs to the price of a new home. A recent analysis by the Canadian Chamber’s Business Data Lab sheds light on which Canadian cities are most vulnerable to these policy shifts.

Understanding the U.S. Tariff Exposure Index

The researchers put together a U.S. Tariff Exposure Index that looks at two main things:

• Export Intensity: How much of a city’s economic activity depends on selling goods to the U.S.
• Market Dependence: How reliant a city is on the U.S. as its main trading partner.

Cities that score high in both areas are considered especially at risk when U.S. tariffs shake up trade.

The Cities on the Front Line

Saint John, New Brunswick
Leading the list, Saint John is hit hard by its reliance on exports like crude oil from the massive Irving Oil Refinery. Any tariff hike affecting oil could deal a serious blow to the local economy.

Calgary, Alberta
Calgary isn’t just known for its stunning landscapes—it’s also a key hub for crude oil, natural gas, and even beef exports. With a large part of its trade directed at the U.S. Midwest, the city faces significant exposure if tariffs push up costs.

Southwestern Ontario: Windsor, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, Brantford, and Guelph
This region’s economy thrives on automotive and parts manufacturing. Windsor, for instance, has deep ties to Michigan’s auto industry. Tariffs could disrupt this delicate balance, affecting production lines and local jobs.

Other cities like Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, Trois-Rivières, Drummondville in Quebec, and Hamilton, Ontario also find themselves at varying levels of risk due to similar dependencies.

Not Everyone’s in the Hot Seat

Some cities have more diversified trade profiles or export more to regions beyond the U.S. For example:

• **British Columbia’s hubs—Victoria, Nanaimo, and Kamloops—**lean more towards Asian markets.
• Halifax, Nova Scotia, on the East Coast, has stronger ties with Europe.
• Sudbury, Ontario, benefits from exporting nickel and copper to multiple markets.

What About Halifax and Its Housing Market?

How Tariffs Could Affect Halifax Homes

• Rising Material Costs:
  Imagine planning a new home build or a renovation project only to see the prices of key building materials—like steel, lumber, or specialized fixtures—increase unexpectedly. If US tariffs drive up the cost of these imported goods, local builders might face higher expenses. These additional costs could then be passed along to homebuyers, potentially pushing up the prices of new homes in Halifax.
• Shifts in Investor Confidence:
  Tariffs often stir uncertainty in the global market. When investors sense that trade policies might be destabilizing costs or supply chains, they may become more cautious. In Halifax, this could mean a slowdown in new housing projects or delays in planned developments, as both developers and buyers wait to see how these economic shifts unfold.
• Indirect Economic Effects:
  Even if you’re not in the construction business, you might notice subtle changes at the local level. Higher construction costs can lead to more expensive rental units or a slowdown in housing supply. In turn, this could influence overall market dynamics, affecting everything from home prices to the rate of new developments across the region.

Why This Matters to You

For many Halifax residents, home isn’t just an investment—it’s where life happens. Rising costs, influenced by factors like US tariffs, can have real consequences on affordability and availability. Whether you’re a first-time buyer or a long-time homeowner, keeping an eye on these global trends can help you better understand the shifts in our local housing market.

The Bigger Picture

These findings serve as a reminder: while some cities are at the frontline of trade exposure, the effects of U.S. tariffs are far-reaching. For policymakers, businesses, and even individual homeowners, understanding these connections is crucial. It calls for proactive strategies—like diversifying export markets and adjusting fiscal policies—to cushion communities from sudden shocks.

Whether you’re in Saint John, Calgary, or even Halifax, staying informed about these global shifts can help you navigate the potential challenges ahead. In our globalized economy, even policies made halfway around the world can end up impacting your neighborhood and, in Halifax’s case, your doorstep.